A study published in the journal Science has raised alarms about the future of plastic waste in the world. According to the analysis, if no action is taken, poorly managed plastic waste could double by 2050, reaching 121 million tons annually. This scenario implies a threat to ecosystems, human health and the climate.
Researchers at the Universities of California at Berkeley and Santa Barbara developed a model based on artificial intelligence to project the impact of public policies on plastics management. The research highlights that, if the current course is not changed, the world would generate enough garbage between 2011 and 2050 to cover Manhattan with a pile of plastic ten times higher than the Empire State Building. Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions related to this material could increase by 37% compared to 2020 levels, reaching 3.35 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Among the most alarming impacts of plastic is its fragmentation into micro- and nanoplastics, which contaminate ecosystems from the Arctic to the ocean depths. These fragments pose serious health risks, such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases and reproductive problemsaccording to the study. Furthermore, the life cycle of plastic, from extraction to disposal, contributes significantly to climate change.
However, the report indicates that a package of combined measures could reduce poorly managed plastic waste by more than 90% and reduce associated emissions by a third. These interventions include: using 40% recycled plastic in new products, limiting the production of virgin plastics to 2020 levels, investing in waste management infrastructure and applying a tax on packaging. According to the authors, these actions could reduce emissions equivalent to taking 300 million gasoline vehicles off the roads for a year.
The upcoming UN plastics treaty, with negotiations taking place in Busan, South Korea, represents a unique opportunity to implement these solutions. “It is time to act to raise and solve this problem”said Douglas McCauley, one of the study’s authors.