The parties that are currently in Moncloa would lose total control if there were elections today, giving up between the two of them up to 21 seats at most (17 at least) since the last general elections were held in July. A circumstance that, de facto, if today the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, decided to dissolve the Cortes Generales in the face of the difficult scenario for governing that could open up for him in the event that a pro-independence majority is reissued in Catalonia that could interfere in the pacts at the national level, would have a direct consequence. He could not lead the coalition government as he failed to be sworn in either in the first or second vote, according to data from the NC Report survey for LA RAZÓN.
The PSOE, which obtained 121 seats in the last elections, today would give up between 6 and 8 seats, remaining in the range of 113 and 115. Yolanda Díaz's party, now without Podemos, would be left with an arithmetic that would make it impossible to reissue the coalition government, with between 18 and 20 seats, losing between 11 and 13 deputies in its second attempt as a national force. Between them, in the highest range they would get 135 seats, an insufficient number to retain Moncloa. The sum with the partners who granted him governance in November would not work now. ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV and Canary Coalition would obtain the same seats they achieved in 23J, while the BNG would win one seat. The sum of partners would give 163 seats, in the highest predictions.
Numbers with which Moncloa could not compete with the right-wing bloc due to the rise that the PP would lead at the same time that the left has lost it. The PP would rise between 25 and 27 seats, leaving itself with a comfortable podium, between 162 and 164 seats, just twelve away from the absolute majority. A job that the popular party would do alone, since Vox would suffer severe punishment at the polls, giving up between seven and nine deputies. Even so, the sum between the two would give them the Government by achieving a large absolute majority with between 186 and 190 seats, one more with UPN.
The fall of PSOE and Sumar is marked by the current political context in which the left suffers a strong erosion that comes in several ways. All the polls have been warning the Government of the loss of electoral power if it finally went ahead with its plan to grant the amnesty law to the pro-independence parties in exchange for their support in the investiture. The general perception was of rejection by society, as finally reflected in the survey. Nor has the PSOE been helped by the corruption case that still plagues its ranks due to fraud in the purchase of masks, better known as the “Koldo case.” The socialists, in this sense, already give up almost a million votes to other parties of which we must pay attention to the 607,000 socialists who would now vote for Feijóo, while 469,000 supporters of the PSOE would stay at home today if there were general elections. It is the party most punished by abstention.
Sumar, for its part, has faced its first trial by fire in these eight months; retain brother parties but jealous of their hegemony. First it was Podemos who broke with Díaz's party in Congress and, in the legislature, while Sumar was being built as a party, its main partners have been limiting their path in their territories. Also, the PSOE has been limiting its power in the Executive, contrary to the achievements that it allowed the vice president to exploit in the last year, when she needed it to win the 23J. Thus, if the elections were repeated, there are 839,000 voters who took the vice president's ballot who would not do so today; of them, 398,000 would vote for the PSOE. In addition, 184,000 supporters would remain abstained. Podemos, however, fails in its open struggle with Sumar and alone would not obtain any seats.
While the left bloc recedes as a result of its tolls to remain in power, the right bloc continues to grow, as was already clear on June 23. The popular ones are the ones that best retain the loyalty of their electorate by retaining 95.8%. They would get between 25 and 27 more seats, a sum that would direct them directly to Moncloa. Furthermore, the PP once again regains voters by convincing up to 117,000 voters who previously preferred Vox. They also achieved 25,000 support from other options and it is the party that wins the most new voters, up to 44.6% of their vote comes from this route.
The survey also clarifies the Vox crisis. Although his result would allow the PP to obtain the majority, Santiago Abascal suffers a serious setback. He gives up to 503,000 votes to the PP, another 15,000 voters would opt for other options and 151,000 supporters would abstain.
Regarding the support or attrition of each leader, none would reach the approval mark. Feijóo would be the best rated with a 4.5, receiving up to 5.5 from Vox and achieving the best score among the older electorate. Pedro Sánchez would follow with a 4.1 and obtaining approval from Sumar voters. His best score also comes from the most experienced electorate. The vice president continues to fall with a 3.9. The best marks come from the youngest. The president of Vox is the worst estimated with a 3.3 and only garners applause among his own.
and draws most of its strength from the youngest and oldest.