Moncloa surrenders to a minority Illa government

Moncloa it gets in hands of the war independence and trust the future of Peter Sanchez to the hypothesis that the former Minister of Health Salvador Illa be able to to form a minority government after the next Catalan elections thank you to the confrontation between CKD and Together. The two independence parties not spokenn, they direct their strategy with a desire to rematch and revengeand there is not no common project because what motivates them is to find the best guide to position themselves ahead of the other on election night. They have been in this for years growing disagreementbut in the core of Peter Sánchez takes it for granted that this time the breaking off It is so total that nor adding a absolute majority will be able to reach a understanding.

In the president's team they work as main stage of the Catalan elections with the idea that they are a window of opportunity “without historical precedent” for Illa because the clash between ERC and Junts will allow them to govern In solitaryalthough this takes again still Parliament blockedbut low “the milestone” that it has a socialist at the head of the Presidency of the Generalitat. He mirror in which the former minister looks is that of the Mayor's Office of Barcelona.

Illa will play this trick, dodging or denying in campaign issues that They are already on the table of bilateral negotiation, as occurs with the fiscal pact and with the “agreed consultation”as a euphemism for referendum.

The project is held on pins and needles and is held on a house of cards in which the evolution of the national and Catalan political situation can cause a card to jump out and this entire framework to also jump into the air. But today it is the only escape route that Moncloa has left to overcome early Catalan elections, which initially represent a threat to the life of the legislature. That's why the socialist leadership will fully deliverwith all the resources at its disposal, to seize that Presidency of the Generalitat, whatever it costs them in the post-electoral negotiation, since until now all the surveys They insist on placing PSC as first force parliamentary

Sánchez and his team also cling to the expectation that their results elections in the Basque Country and in Catalonia be good at the national readingand that this gives them a impulse for the elections Europeanin such a way that the balance of this cycle, taking the votes as a reference, can be presented as the justification that the legislature will continue. They ignore a no minor detailand if this conjecture comes true that ERC and Junts go into opposition in Catalonia, the most likely thing is that at the same time they will also make life impossible for Sánchez in Congresseven more than what has been seen so far in the legislature.

Sánchez's core looks stronger, and also smarter, than Puigdemont

It is striking that despite having delivered the amnesty, and that, furthermore, the agreement has been sustained by added concessions by the socialists, however in Moncloa boast of its capacity to go around the maximalist demands of the independence movement. If Junts and ERC say that the amnesty is the starting point, in Moncloa they are saying that it is the final point, and that the independence movement will fail at the polls and will no longer have any escape route other than to continue launching proclamations without majority support in Catalan society.

Or explained another way, in the president's team look more strong and, to put it simply, more ready that Carles Puigdemont and that Pere Aragonese. Oriole Junqueras It no longer enters the equation because they take it for granted. amortized.

If in Catalonia Sánchez's supposed strength is that ERC and Junts are killing each other, in the Basque Country is the alleged weakness of the PNV and the need that they will have Basque nationalists of keep counting with the PSE in Ajuria Enea. at least this it is what today they say the most of the surveys carried out.

It should be noted that all this fitting of pieces, in the official situation analysis, is seen within the PSOElike the story of the milkmaidbut it is also true that this they have already had the same impressionon other occasions and In the end, Sánchez has managed to overcome the worst circumstances. The current aggravating factor is that they do not control the Puigdemont factor nor do they have the capacity to control the evolution of other elements of the national agenda such as, for example, what may continue to emerge from the open investigation into the “Koldo case.”

He parliamentary siege of the PSOE is total. In Congress, on behalf of its partners. In the Senate, by the absolute majority of the PP, which yesterday made another move with the announcement that it will propose a institutional conflict between Congress and Senate For try paralyze the amnesty law. Those from Feijóo will use their majority in the Upper House to call a plenary session and demand that Congress withdraw the rule agreed upon with the independentists.

It is an unprecedented institutional clash since this conflict had never arisen before in democracy and will end surely in court Constitutional. It is included in article 73 of the Organic Law of the Constitutional Court and occurs when one institution, in this case the Senate, considers that another, the Congress, has adopted decisions assuming powers that the Constitution or the organic laws confer on the first. That is, it considers that it has usurped some of its functions or powers. The person in charge of settling this clash is the Plenary Session of the Constitutional Court.

((QUOTE:PULL|||The PP monopolizes the offensive against the amnesty with its sights set on Catalonia))

The legal team of the PP He has spent months studying all the possible instruments that they have at their disposal to stop the amnestyand they will activate its, one by one, even if they take it for granted that the Constitutional Court will act “on behalf”: progressive majority at the service of the Government coalition.

This institutional and power clash has a very high cost for institutions affected, but PP justifies its offensive in it lawyers' report of the Upper House who argue the irregularities in processing of the amnesty and maintain that the text is unconstitutional. Calling it a hidden reform of the Constitution.

Now We will have to see what response Puigdemont has.which aims to make his return to Catalonia the main focus of the campaign.