The amnesty law enters one of the parts of its most delicate procedure for the stability of the fragile investiture agreement of Pedro Sanchez: the modifications in the articles. The deadline to register amendments to the content of the law in Congress ends on Tuesday afternoon, and the negotiating teams of PSOE, ERC and Junts They have been discussing for weeks how to technically adjust the text to protect it from being applied to the Democratic Tsunami and CDR causes, affected by terrorism accusations and without a final ruling yet. Socialists and independentists have also studied the criticism that constitutional law professors have made in recent months of the negotiated text to design the legal engineering necessary to block the possibility of the Constitutional Court opposing what Congress approves. During the negotiation prior to its registration in the Lower House, there was information that suggested that even They were consulting its wording with current members of the TC.
Just linking to this, the PP will register today in Congress the request for them to appear in Parliament independent professors and jurists to establish a position and advise the deputies in their work, in order to prevent the majority from carrying out an unconstitutional text, as already happened with the Statute of Catalonia of 2006, and which four years later was reviewed by the TC. This clash between the will of the legislative majority and the Judiciary was one of the driving forces that served the independence movement to justify the activation of the “process”. The PP proposal will foreseeably be knocked down by the PSOE and its partners, but the popular ones can rescue it for the Senate, where they have an absolute majority.
This parliamentary movement is linked to a new institutional and social offensive against the amnesty. The PP has already announced another mobilization for next day 28 and what it has baptized as “route for equality”, in which the party will extend the protest to towns and cities throughout Spain. Continuously maintaining the call at the national level is a risk because this maximum level of mobilization cannot be “sustained” permanently, but the PP does have the capacity to mobilize its militants and voters by constituencies: this gives space to regional and local level, and it is a noise that also ends up harming the PSOE at the national level, or so they believe.
Once the amendments are registered, the law will be debated in the Justice Commission, a procedure that can be completed in one or two weeks. The objective is for the Lower House to approve the rule at the beginning of February; It will then be sent to the Senate, where The PP will paralyze its processing for two months. The PSOE estimates that the final approval of the grace measure will take place at the end of April.
This implies that the PP still has three months ahead of it to oppose the parliamentary phase of the law. The final fireworks will be launched in the final approval of the same, which will be accompanied by the largest mobilization that has been seen in this legislature.
The agenda of the Government and the PP converge in Catalonia and in Junts. Moncloa is right when he defends that the noise that the independentists are making is far greater than the scope of the concrete decisions in which the pact in extremis will end up materializing, with its feet already on the edge of the precipice, that the socialists signed with Carles Puigdemont to avoid a defeat that would have shown that this Government has no capacity to govern.
It must be taken into account that the letter of the pact signed by the socialists with Junts to invest Pedro Sánchez is so indefinite that it will lead to new surprises (such as those seen this past week in the voting of the first decree laws) from the pro-independence side and on two fundamental themes: overcome the limitations of self-government and national recognition of Catalonia. Until the Catalan elections arrive, Junts will go party by party, negotiating, without throwing everything overboard, but looking for a way to wear down ERC and PSC.
Therefore, the price that Puigdemont has charged for carrying out the first decrees may not materialize as Junts sells it, but he has achieved a new coup in his favor, making it very clear that he puts the exclusive interests of Catalonia above any other consideration. Furthermore, he has managed to focus on an issue that worries him electorally: immigration and the dangers that threaten the culture and identity of its voter.
From what was agreed last week, the withdrawal of the article that, in the opinion of Junts, jeopardized the application of the amnesty by calling for the suspension of procedures when the judges refer the case to the EU High Court of Justice has an easier solution. , and also the total bonus for public transport and the reduction in VAT on oil. But much more difficult to achieve, and it will be necessary to see if it has support for its development in Congress, is the transfer of powers in immigration (the State has exclusive jurisdiction over nationality, emigration, foreigners and the right to asylum), the reversal of the decree which made it easier for companies to move out of Catalonia in 2017 and the publication of fiscal balances.
In this climate of confrontation over the amnesty, Congress will address the reform of article 49 to eliminate the term “diminished” on January 16 and 18: PSOE and PP do not contemplate including amendments and intend for the processing in the Senate to conclude in the present month.