Buenos Aires – Human-caused climate change had a major impact on recent wildfires that devastated parts of Chile and Argentina’s Patagonia region, making extreme risk conditions that caused widespread burning up to three times more likely than in a world without global warming, a team of researchers warned Wednesday.
The hot, dry and windy weather that fueled last month’s deadly fires in central and southern Chile was about 200% more likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, while the high-fire-risk conditions that fueled fires still burning in southern Argentina were about 150% more likely, according to World Weather Attribution, a scientific initiative that investigates extreme weather events soon after they occur.
That probability will only increase as humans continue to burn fossil fuels and cover the planet with more heat-trapping gases, the researchers said.
Fires that swept through the Chilean regions of Biobío and Ñuble in mid-January claimed the lives of 23 people, destroyed more than 1,000 houses and other structures, and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes. All were caused by human activity, either by provocation or negligence.
1/8 | In images: forest fires devastate Argentine Patagonia. Dozens of fire teams and brigade members are fighting to combat the strong fires in Argentine Patagonia. – Maxi Jonas
In southern Argentina, fires caused by lightning forced the evacuation of thousands of tourists and residents and burned more than 45,000 hectares (174 square miles) of native forest, including vast expanses of Los Alerces National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site home to 2,600-year-old trees.
Finding human footprints in disasters
Confirming widespread suspicions, the study offers the first scientific assessment of the role of global warming in intensifying some of the most serious forest fire emergencies that have hit Chile and Argentina in recent years.
It is the latest in an emerging subfield within climate science known as weather attribution, which is rapidly evolving in response to the growing public thirst for information about the influence of climate change on natural disasters.
The World Weather Attribution report has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in any scientific journal, but is based on widely accepted methods, including data analysis and computer model simulations to compare the current climate with past climate patterns.
“Overall, we can safely say that the main driver of this increase in fire risk is human-caused warming,” Clair Barnes, a research associate at World Weather Attribution, said in a press conference with reporters. “These trends are expected to continue into the future as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels.”
Hot, dry forests become powder kegs
Record droughts and scorching temperatures created conditions ripe for wildfires in Chile and Argentina, the study noted, while plantations of single species of highly flammable trees such as pines helped fire spread more easily in both areas. Invasive species have replaced the region’s more fire-resistant native ecosystems, turning shrubs, bushes and grasses into tinder.
In Argentine Patagonia, the town of El Bolsón recorded its highest temperature in January at 101º Fahrenheit (-38.4º Celsius). Esquel, near Los Alerces National Park, recorded 11 consecutive days of maximum temperatures in January, its second longest heat wave in 65 years. Temperatures in Chile before the fires were high but not record high.
The researchers estimated that seasonal rains from November to January, before the peak fire risk period, were about 25% weaker in Chile and 20% less intense in Argentine Patagonia than they would have been without an increase in global temperatures of at least 2.3º F (1.3º C) since preindustrial times.
“This, together with higher than average temperatures, led to the vegetation being under stress, with very low soil humidity,” said Juan Antonio Rivera, Argentine researcher and author of the study. “Once the wildfires started… there was enough fuel for them to spread and sustain over time.”
The reduction of resources affects
Chile has increased its budget to combat forest fires by 110% in the last four years, during the presidency of leftist Gabriel Boric, improving prevention and investing in new equipment.
But in Argentina, the strict austerity program imposed by libertarian President Javier Milei may have hampered the country’s ability to respond to the fires, researchers said, citing budget cuts to fire brigades, a lack of planning and the deregulation of tourist activity in Patagonia’s national parks. It is an argument that firefighters, park rangers and officials involved in relief efforts have repeated to The Associated Press.
Milei, like his ally and American counterpart Donald Trump, denies that climate change is related to human activity. His office did not respond to a request for comment early Wednesday.
“Unfortunately, with a government that does not understand climate change and its connection with human activity, where nature is secondary in terms of priorities, these situations worsen and forest fires end up having more impact than they should,” Rivera said. “The situation is not yet under control.”
This story was translated from English to Spanish with an artificial intelligence tool and was reviewed by an editor before publication.